Governments often delegate aspects of regulatory enforcement to third-party firms that sell compliance-related services to regulated buyers. Competition in markets for these services may induce sellers to help buyers evade regulations, but can lower compliance costs for honest buyers. This paper quantifies this tradeoff in the Texas market for passenger vehicle emissions tests. Test-level administrative data show that drivers purchased more than 9 million falsified tests from thousands of competitive firms between 2002 and 2024. More intense competition due to the entry of new firms causes a 6% increase in cheating by nearby incumbents. Cheating allows drivers to forego repairs and vehicle replacement that would avoid $28 - $55 of annual health damages from tailpipe emissions. To understand how much consumers benefit from a dense spatial distribution of differentiated testing firms, I estimate a spatial dynamic discrete choice model of demand for repairs and for cheating and fair tests. A counterfactual market like that in other U.S. states in which a monopolist controls a small number of testing locations would increase the ratio of compliance costs to environmental benefits even if it eliminated cheating. Pigouvian taxes would be more cost effective.
(with Ben Lockwood and Arthur van Benthem)
Dockless, shared e-bikes and scooters are a rapidly-growing segment of the local transportation market despite being taxed at higher rates per mile of travel than many conventional transportation modes, including motor vehicles. This paper asks what the optimal tax rate for shared bikes and scooters would be when accounting for environmental externalities and redistribution. We derive a sufficient-statistics model that describes how optimal tax rates depend on both extensive-margin (number of trips) and intensive-margin (duration of trips) demand responses to price changes, as well as the income of bike and scooter users and net externalities relative to other travel modes. We estimate the parameters of this model using trip-level data from Lime, a large bike and scooter company, and find that in several U.S. cities, use of their vehicles is concentrated among low-income individuals. The model accordingly suggests that policymakers in these cities might want to subsidize shared bike and scooter use substantially more than what can be justified by the modest positive externalities it generates by displacing trips by motor vehicles.
Energy efficiency disclosure in multifamily housing
Asymmetric information between home buyers and sellers may reduce owners' incentives to invest in energy-conserving upgrades: when buyers cannot perfectly differentiate high- and low-efficiency buildings, sellers are unable to fully pass on the up-front cost of energy-related upgrades, and so face weaker incentives to make these upgrades. Local governments in many large U.S. cities have correspondingly passed legislation requiring public disclosure of energy use for large buildings. Do these laws improve energy efficiency, and if so, why? This paper first simulates a model of building owners' dynamic decision about when and how much to invest in upgrading their building's energy efficiency to show that steady-state building energy use is sensitive to information provision only when the extent of information provision about building efficiency affects the capitalization of energy efficiency in unit prices. I therefore investigate whether energy disclosure laws in New York City have affected unit prices, sale frequencies, and efficiency-related renovations in regulated multifamily buildings, using a regression discontinuity design. The effect of the policy on unit prices and sales is null and imprecise, which makes it difficult to conclude that the policy provided new information to buyers, but disclosure caused a 60% increase in boiler-related renovations in between 2016 and 2020.